Playoff Rankings
Did somebody say Playoffs? Yes, they are finally upon us. With ten teams heading into the 2019 October scramble, many have described the upcoming playoffs as having a clear Final Four, the AL’s Astros and Yankees, and the NL’s Dodgers and Braves. Yet, in baseball, there are often big surprises in the post-season. Sometimes a team catches fire late in the season and takes that momentum all the way to the World Series. Also, in contrast to the NFL and NBA playoffs, having “home field” advantage is not always a huge factor. Will the best team in baseball’s regular season win it all this year? My hunch is yes, but let’s rank everyone’s chances to bring home the 2019 World Championship. It promises to be an exciting October.
Houston Astros. The Astros have won more games (107) than any team in baseball this year. There’s a reason for it; they are strong in every aspect of the game. The lineup is the headliner with veterans such as Carlos Correa (SS), Alex Bregman (112 RBIs), Michael Brantley (.311 batting average), George Springer (38 HRs), and my favorite, second baseman Jose Altuve. Mid-year saw the arrival of Jordan Alvarez, who was the AL Rookie of the month in June, July, and August. Their abundance of riches continues on the mound with starters Justin Verlander (21-6, 2.58 ERA and 300 Ks) and Gerrit Cole (20-5, 2.50 ERA and 324 Ks) competing for the AL Cy Young, bolstered by a mid-year acquisition of another ace, Zach Greinke (18-5 record). Roberto Osuna, second in the AL with 38 saves, is a top closer. Manager A.J. Hinch has the playoff experience to push the right buttons in what promises to be an Orange October. The Astros are my prohibitive favorites.
Atlanta Braves. The Braves are primed for a World Series appearance. They are led by first baseman Freddie Freeman, who has had a season worthy of MVP chatter (38 HRs, won the NL RBI crown with 121, and a .295 batting average). The team overall is youthful and fast, evidenced by rising superstar Ronald Acuna, Jr., who led the NL with 127 runs scored and 37 stolen bases, and standout second baseman, Ozzie Albies. The Braves too have a solid trio of starters, Max Fried (17-6), Mike Soroka (2.60 ERA) and newcomer to the team, veteran lefthander Dallas Keuchel, who will match up well with the Dodgers’ left-handed lineup in a likely NLCS matchup. The Braves’ Brian Snitker is one of my favorite managers in the game, an old schooler who knows how to get the most out of his team. The 2019 NL pennant awaits the Braves.
Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers have lost in the World Series the last two seasons. Is this their redemption year? In 2019 LA has excelled, the second most wins in baseball (106). From day one the Dodgers have been setting all sorts of hitting records. Cody Bellinger’s 2019 statistics are amazing (47 HRs, 115 RBIs, and .305 BA), certainly the kind of year that will make him the favorite in the NL MVP race. Typical of Dodgers teams from the past they have excellent starting pitching with the likes of Clayton Kershaw (15-5 and a 3.15 ERA), Hyun-jin Ryu (led NL with 2.41 ERA), and Walker Buehler (14-4 and 3.15 ERA). The Dodgers also tout one of baseball’s top names as a closer, Kenley Jansen. Jansen though has had his troubles closing out games in 2019, and I see it as a possible achilles heel for LA. It’s a great team, hoping for their first world championship since 1988, but again they will fall just short this October.
New York Yankees. I’m sure that the television networks would love to see the Yanks return to the World Series. Unfortunately this NY team is not built for the playoffs. Yes, baseball today is all about the home run ball, a great Yankee strength (Aaron Judge, Giancolo Stanton, Clint Frazier, etc.). And yes, the Yankees have been a wonderful story this year, facing all sorts of injuries to these key players and many others. The team, led by second year manager Aaron Boone, has been incredibly resilient, and has actually been led by some lesser known stars, Glaybar Torres (38 HRs) and second baseman DJ LeMahieu (second in the AL with a .327 batting average). BUT there is a glaring weakness in starting pitching with the loss of top performer Domingo German (18-6 record). With Severino just back, Happ and Tanaka having solid seasons, and Chapman ready to close out games, there is hope enough to get them into the ALCS. The train stops there though.
Minnesota Twins. The Yankees’ 2019 home run barrage (306) is actually matched by their ALDS opponents, the Twins (307), the only two teams in baseball history who have hit over 300 home runs in a season. The Twins are led by Nelson Cruz (.311 BA, 45 HRs and 108 RBIs), an MVP candidate. Amazingly, Minnesota has 4 other players with 30+ home runs, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Mitch Garver, and Miguel Sano. Jorge Polanco leads the team defensively with his flashy shortstop play. The Twins’ starting pitching (headed by Jose Berrios) has been steady much of the season, allowing the team to be one of four major league teams with 100 wins this season. Taylor Rogers (30 saves) is the closer for the relief core. The ALDS matchup with the Yankees promises to be a dream come true for those who love offense.
St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards won the NL Central fittingly on the last day of the regular season. The entire season has been an uphill battle for St. Louis, spending much of April-July mired in third place. The Cardinals even survived the absence mid-season of their Gold Glove catcher and team leader, Yadier Molina. When you review MLB 2019 individual statistics leaders, not many Cardinal names are on the lists. Paul Kleinschmidt, their off-season All-Star acquisition from Arizona, had just a so-so year for him. What stands out is team play and speed, best in the NL in fielding and stolen bases. The Cardinal also received steady play and a dose of youth in the infield from Paul DeJong and Tommy Edman. Starting pitching was a real key, being able to rely on quality starts from Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson, Miles Mikolas, and Adam Wainwright. Will they have enough to get by Atlanta? The Cards can only hope a little 2011 magic comes their way.
Washington Nationals. Washington is the top Wild Card team heading into the games this week. Indeed, were it not for the one and done nature of the Wild Card slots, I would rank the Nats a lot higher than #7. Life without Bryce Harper has been quite nice, thank you, especially in the second half of the season. The Nationals have an MVP candidate of their own, Anthony Rendon (.319 BA, 34 HRs and 126 RBIs), together with some great young talent – Juan Soto; Trea Turner; and Victor Robles. The main recipe for success comes from the formidable starting rotation, 3-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer (243 Ks and 2.92 ERA), Stephen Strasburg (18-6 record) and lefty Patrick Corbin (14-7). No one in the NL wants a series matchup against this trio, including the Dodgers if the Nats get by round one.
Oakland Athletics. This is not your A’s teams of the early 1970s or 1989- 1991 with big name stars in the field and on the starting staff. So how does this A’s team match some of those great teams in the win column (the 2019 A’s have won 97 games!)? They do have some offensive clout, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Khris Davis, and Marcus Semien, and a top starter, Mike Fiers (15-4 record). The strength of the ballclub though is clearly in the bullpen, which ranks by far tops in the MLB in games pitched, Petit (79), Hendriks (75), and Soria (71). That stat alone is the storyline of today’s baseball, and promises to be a key factor in the Wild Card game vs. Tampa Bay. If Oakland wins this Wednesday, they start the ALDS against another team with colorful jerseys next weekend, the Astros.
Milwaukee Brewers. If managerial success is measured in your team’s September win-loss record, Craig Counsell heads the list the last two years. After their surprise first-place run to the finish last year, the Brewers again came roaring back in September in 2019 to nab a Wild Card slot. Incredibly, their September dominance came without the reigning NL MVP, Christian Yelich in the lineup, who put up MVP-type numbers (.329 BA, 44 HRs and 97 RBIs) prior to his season-ending knee injury three weeks ago. Everyone stepped up as the Brew Crew went on a 16-2 run! This past weekend Milwaukee had an opening to win the NL Central but was swept in the season-ending series in Colorado. With Josh Hader ready to close out the game against the Nats on Tuesday, anything can indeed happen. It’s difficult to see how Milwaukee might advance deep in the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Rays. Raise your hand if you have seen Tampa Bay play more than a handful of times this year. Indeed, despite the Rays 96-win season, their own fans can’t seem to find their way to Tropicana Field. But they can indeed play, and in certainly a unique way masterminded by manager Kevin Cash. The Rays went with a six-man starting rotation some of the year, and much like the A’s, relied on their bullpen strength. Last year’s Cy Young winner Blake Snell actually had an off year (just 6 wins), but others stepped up, including Tyler Glasnow and veteran Charlie Morton who will get the Wild Card start on Wednesday in Oakland.
Which two teams do you predict will be in the World Series? Enjoy the games!
Until next Monday,
your Baseball Bench Coach
