Finish Line
The 162-game baseball season is often described as a marathon, not a sprint. In horse racing terms, MLB 2019 is the Belmont, not the Preakness. The Seattle Mariners came running out of the gate in April, but soon stumbled into last place in the AL West for much of the season. The Washington Nationals, seen as a favorite by many pre-season analysts, had a disastrous first half but has played some of the best baseball in the National League down the stretch. The Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, and Braves have maintained their dominant run for the entire season and have already been crowned division champions. While those four thoroughbreds get ready for the playoffs, what about the other six playoff spots? Before I predict this year’s possible “wild” run to the finish line, let’s take a look back at some of the best ones in baseball history:
Phold of ’64. I was too little to closely follow the 1964 NL race but have a clear recollection of the final day of the season. My family and I were watching with friends as the Reds lost in their bid to win the 10-team NL race. The Phillies though were the big losers of the season, having led the league since opening day only to “phold” in September. Philadelphia maintained a comfortable 6 ½ game lead with 12 games to play, but lost its next ten games. The losing streak was triggered by a steal of home by a Reds utility infielder, often called the “Curse of Chico Ruiz”. The Cardinals took the NL pennant, the Reds and Phillies tied for second place one game out, and the Giants came in fourth just three games from the lead. It was a good pennant to capture as the Cardinals went on to win the ’64 Series over the Yankees 4 games to 3.
’69 Swoon. The Cubs were the kings of the NL East for the first three-quarters of the season. Ernie Banks, Ron Santo, and Billy Williams provided the offensive firepower, while Ferguson Jenkins and Ken Holtzman dominated from the mound. The Cubs led the division by 9 games over the Mets on August 15. The Cubs then went into a terrible swoon, most of it attributed to manager Leo Durocher’s using the same regular players without rest in those endless day games at Wrigley Field. The Amazin’ Mets and its outstanding pitching staff led by Tom Seaver came roaring from behind and posted a 38-11 record down the stretch, winning the division by 8 games. It was a 17 game turnaround! Those Mets would soon be America’s darlings, taking the ’69 Series 4 games to 1 over the heavily favored Baltimore Orioles.
Dent’s Homer. As we so painfully experience each year on national telecasts, MLB loves the Yankees vs. Red Sox rivalry. A 1978 AL East tie-breaker game might just be the pinnacle of the matchup. The teams had combined to win the last three AL pennants (Red Sox in ’75; Yankees in “76 and ’77). The Red Sox, looking to break its World Series win drought of 60 years, had a 14-game lead in mid-July. The Yanks came storming back and the teams ended in a tie in the regular season with identical 99-63 records. It came down to one October afternoon at Fenway Park, the first tiebreaker game in the AL since 1948. The Red Sox led throughout the game, but we all know the ending. Yankees’ shortstop Bucky Dent hit a three-run homer, only his 5th of the season, to lead NY to a 5-4 win. And yes, those damn Yankees would soon capture another world title, winning the ’78 Series against their other rival, the Dodgers, in six games.
Wild Cards. On August 24 of the 2011 National League season, St. Louis was down 10 games in the NL Central standings to Milwaukee and 10 ½ games in the NL Wild Card race to Atlanta. The Cardinals’ chances of making the NL playoffs was 1.3%. While the Brewers would hang on to win the division in September, the Braves couldn’t withstand the Cardinals’ charge, losing the wild card bid on the final day of the regular season. The Cardinals had completed the largest comeback in baseball history after 130 games played. The Cardinals’ magic turned into a Red October as St. Louis downed Philadelphia (NLDS), Milwaukee (NLCS), and Texas (World Series) to win the world championship.
NL Scramble. The 162-game 2018 regular season did nothing to decide the NL pennant race. On the final day of the season, only the Atlanta Braves, winners of the NL East, had secured their seed in the playoffs. Tiebreaker games were played for the top spot in the NL Central and West with the Brewers and Dodgers coming out on top. The losers of the tiebreaker games, Chicago and Colorado, met at Wrigley Field in the wild card play-in game. And even then, nine innings couldn’t decide the wild card entrant into the NLDS as the teams went into extras tied 1-1. It took an RBI single by Rockies catcher Tony Wolters to decide the game in the 13th inning. It was indeed a “wild” way to begin the 2018 NL playoffs.
Are we ready for another wild ending to this regular season? With two weeks left in the season, that looked to be a strong possibility with four teams bunched up in both leagues vying for three playoff spots (Twins, Indians, Rays and A’s in the AL; Cards, Brewers, Nationals and Cubs in the NL). While the possibility remains, things have become a little more settled over the past week. The AL Central indeed appears to be over. Going into the final six games of the season, the Twins hold a 4-game lead over the Indians. It’s been an amazing year for Minnesota, setting all sorts of team offensive records, including breaking the MLB single-season record for team home runs set last year by the Yankees. The Twins will be popping some corks during the week in either Detroit or Kansas City.
The NL Central has come down to two clubs, St. Louis and Milwaukee. The Cardinals are in command with a 3-game lead and six games left. The Cardinals are coming off a huge weekend sweep over the Cubs in Chicago, featuring four consecutive one-run wins, the last two in ninth inning come from behind fashion. The Cardinals head to Arizona for three games, hoping that they can clinch the division before coming back to Busch Stadium for a rematch next weekend with the Cubs. The Brewers have had a big September again this year, climbing all the way back from being five games behind in the wild card race just two weeks ago. When Christian Yelich was ruled out for the year with a broken knee cap, it was difficult to imagine the Brew Crew’s end of the season run to the finish line. Look though for the Cards to win the NL Central sometime this week.
Although the Brewers look to finish second in the division race, they appear headed to an NL wild card showdown with the Nationals early next week. The teams go into the final week tied for the wild card lead and a four + game advantage over the rest of the remaining teams still alive (Cubs, Mets, Phillies, and Diamondbacks). The battle this week will be whether Milwaukee or Washington obtains home field advantage in the one-game showdown. The Brewers are on the road in Cincinnati and Colorado, while the Nationals are back in D.C. for a final homestand with the Phillies and the Indians. While both the Brewers and Nationals hope to play the wild card game at home, maybe the more important task is to line up their pitching staffs for the winner take all game.
The AL Wild Card race has three teams, the A’s, Rays, and Indians, fighting to win and place; show (3rd) won’t cut it. Oakland has a 2-game lead over Tampa and Cleveland. While Oakland finishes on the road, their opponents are struggling AL West foes Angels and Mariners. Oakland should snag one of the two AL Wild Card slots. The Rays are at home with the Yankees, who will be battling hard for the best overall record, and then close on the road in Toronto. Cleveland takes to the road against the White Sox and Nationals, a tough finishing slate. I like the hot Indians to get the second AL Wild Card post.
Enjoy the race to the finish line this week! Next week I’ll be reviewing the chances of all ten playoff teams. Who knows, we may have a Secretariat among them!
Until next Monday,
your Baseball Bench Coach