Watchful Eye — Baseball Bench Coach

Everyone loves the Fall – the cool, crisp air; leaves turning; and pumpkin spice lattes. It’s my favorite time of the year as well, yet my focus remains on baseball and our Fall Classic. The 2019 World Series opens on Tuesday evening. I truly can’t wait, but I must say that I hope each evening throughout the Series I can remain alert enough to really enjoy it. You see, the World Series used to mean afternoon baseball. One of my fondest memories as a little boy was watching the games with my Dad. He always would take the week off for vacation. I would run home from the afternoon bus stop and get my seat next to him. He would give me his insight on hot batters and pitchers, momentum swings, and managerial decisions. What are the key things to watch for in this year’s matchup between the Nationals and the Astros?

During a short series often a single hitter can carry his team on his back. Will Howie Kendrick (Nats) and Jose Altuve (Astros) continue their hot hitting? Or will someone else step up? Past World Series have had many hot stick stories. One could write a separate article on the great Yankee batters in the Series – Reggie Jackson, Mr. October (his legendary 3 home run game in the ’77 Series); Derek Jeter (32 runs scored); Lou Gehrig (12 multi-hit and 4 multi-steal games); and the greatest ever, Babe Ruth (15 Series home runs). Of course, there were others, often leading the way in upset wins. How about Roberto Clemente in the Pirates triumph over heavily favored Baltimore in 1971, a .414 batting average and the decisive home run in Game 7? Or lesser known Billy Hatcher of the 1990 Reds, who from the leadoff spot had an amazing .750 batting average in the sweep of the powerful Oakland A’s? My Dad would tell me to look out for a multi-dimensional player who could win games in several ways. For us in our 1960’s living room that was Lou Brock, who in 3 World Series for the Cardinals had these numbers -- .391 batting average; 16 runs; and 14 steals!

In Brock’s third World Series, 1968 against the Tigers, his base path exploits provided another key to look for, momentum swings. The Cardinals were up 3 games to 1 and leading Game 5, when Detroit catcher Bill Freehan threw out the Cardinals’ speedster not once, but twice in the middle of the game. My Dad turned to me and remarked, “it’s the Tigers Series now” (which they went on to win in 7 games). Momentum can swing a Series at any time, even in Game 1. In 1988 the Dodgers trailed Oakland 4 to 3 in the ninth inning of Game 1 with two outs and a runner on first, and facing one of the great all-time closers, Dennis Eckersley. Kirk Gibson, injured at the time with a bad knee, limped to the plate as a pinch hitter and hit one of the most dramatic HRs ever in his only at-bat of the Series. The Dodgers went on to dominate the A’s 4 games to 1. Gibson had just 4 years earlier as a Detroit Tiger hit a 1984 Series turning home run in Game 5 against the Padres, a long home run off another HOF reliever, Goose Gossage.

As Yogi Berra might have said, 90% of October baseball is pitching, and the other half is mental. When it comes to hot pitchers in World Series play, another Gibson comes to mind, Bob Gibson of the St. Louis Cardinals. In the 1967 Series against the Red Sox, Gibby allowed only 3 earned runs in three complete game wins (Games 1, 4, and 7). Coming into the Series hot is the story of Orel Hershiser in 1988. Hershiser finished the regular season with a 59 inning scoreless streak. In the World Series he threw a Game 2 shutout and allowed only 2 runs in the Game 5 clincher, capturing the World Series MVP. More recently, we witnessed the dominant pitching performance of Madison Bumgarner in the 2014 Series. MadBum allowed 1 run in SF’s opening win over the Royals, threw a complete game shutout in Game 5, and came back on just two days rest to throw five scoreless innings in relief as the Giants completed their even-numbered year magic (titles in 2010, 2012, and 2014). This year we have some aces who could match these efforts in the likes of Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg (Nats) and Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole (Astros). Watch for them!

While one or more of these outstanding starters might throw gems in the upcoming Series, the way the game is played today a successful start means just a seven inning, 100 pitch performance. Managers Dave Martinez and AJ Hinch will most certainly need to turn to their respective relief staffs to close out games. Relievers have played a key role in past World Series play. Who can forget Tug McGraw of the Mets in 1973 with his trademark “Ya Gotta Believe”, appearing in 5 of the 7 games? Rollie Fingers of the A’s won the 1974 Series MVP award with several multi-inning games in relief. And of course there is the ultimate closer, Mariano Rivera, who spun 23 consecutive scoreless appearances in the Yankees’ 5 titles during his era, along with garnering an MVP Series award of his own (1999). Both teams in this Series have designated “closers”, Daniel Hudson (Washington) and Roberto Osuna (Houston). A key though will be the bridge from the starters to the closers, and which team’s overall relief corps has a better Series.

Another factor will be the role of the designated hitter. Although the AL adopted the DH rule in 1973, it was not a part of World Series play until 1976 when it applied to all World Series games but only in even numbered years. Through time we have adopted its current usage, both teams use a DH only in games played in the AL park. We have had only one designated hitter who has won the World Series MVP, Hideki Matsui in 2009 when he contributed to 6 of the 7 runs the Yankees recorded in their Game 6 decider over the Phillies. This week in Games 1 and 2 in Houston we will most probably see Howie Kendrick as the Nationals’ DH. This gives Washington a defensive boost since the Nats can get Kendrick’s errant glove off the field but keep his hot bat in the lineup. When the Series shifts to D.C. next weekend for Games 3, 4, and 5, watch for how AJ Hinch adjusts his lineup without a DH and how the Astros pitchers fare as hitters. Interestingly, two of the Astros top three starters, Gerrit Cole and Zach Greinke, are former National Leaguers who will settle into the batter’s box quite comfortably.

With today’s starting pitcher accustomed to taking the mound every fifth day, the most typical World Series rotation is for your top three pitchers to toe the rubber in Games 1 and 5, 2 and 6, and 3 and 7, respectively. So what about Game 4; do you have a solid starter for that one as well? The Nationals starting staff has answered that with a resounding YES during the playoffs. A huge key to their success from Wild Card entrant to World Series contender is the strength of their top four – Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, and Sanchez. Houston does not have the benefit of a solid four. In the ALDS against Tampa Bay, the Astros danced around it and threw Verlander in Game 4 with just three days rest, resulting in a loss. Just this past weekend, we saw the Astros go to a “bullpen game” in Game 6 of the ALCS, this time coming away with a pennant win. And somewhat surprisingly, the Astros’ #3 guy Greinke has not been as solid as expected in the playoffs so far. While the AL pennant winners will attempt to ride the backs of Cole and Verlander during the Series, the Nats may just may have the starting recipe to upset the favorites.

While Houston is coming off a tough 6-game ALCS with the Yankees, the Nationals have long secured their spot in the Series with a sweep of the Cardinals in the NLCS. As you settle into your comfy chair on Tuesday night for Game 1, one other key to watch for is whether the one-week rest will impact Washington. Often a long layoff detracts from your playoff-winning momentum. Nine of the last ten world champions had less rest going into the Series than their opponent, the only exception being last year’s Red Sox. Sometimes a longer layoff does allow a manager to gain an advantage by setting the pitching rotation the way he wants it. That’s not a real advantage this year for the Nats since AJ Hinch, despite the 6-game ALCS, will be able to use Cole, Verlander, and Greinke on regular rest in Games 1, 2, and 3 against the more rested Nats starters. Interestingly for the Washington starters, only Strasburg has seemed to be effected by getting too much rest in the past. This year, Strasburg’s ERA with six or more days’ rest is 5.09. The historical numbers suggest no long rest concern for Scherzer, Corbin, and Sanchez.

By next Monday morning, Game 5 of the 2019 World Series will be in the books. Maybe that will be the deciding game. The last team who lost Game 5 but won the World Series was the Cardinals in 2011. So many trends; so much to think about! Unfortunately, I am not able to discuss it with you anymore, Dad. I guess that is why I am writing this blog. Please know that I will be viewing the games this week with a watchful eye, looking for those moments that really matter.

Until next Monday,

your Baseball Bench Coach