Elite Eight
I was so excited for Super Wednesday this past week; eight MLB games and my favorite teams were in the 16-team tournament! And then they each lost that day. It reminded me of my 10th birthday, the one time in my childhood that I convinced my parents to invite my school friends over for a party. I was so excited to see what gifts I might receive. My bubble burst that day as well. You see, 7 of my 8 classmates brought model airplanes for me to construct. Let’s just say that putting things together has never been a strong point for me. I put all of them in my closet with the hope of maybe re-gifting someday (don’t tell my guests). The eighth gift though was kind of cool. It was an Ouija Board, something I could use to predict my future. So I dusted it off this weekend and used it to rank my Elite Eight, the ordering of the remaining teams in MLB’s bracket play and their chances to be the 2020 World Champions:
Los Angeles Dodgers. It’s painful for me to place LA in the top spot (see “Dodgers Blues”, 04/29/2019), but this year’s team is very deserving. The Dodgers came out of the 2020 gate with a 30-10 record, the best 40-game start in franchise history. They’ve never let up, gaining the #1 seed in the NL with the best overall record, and easily defeating the Brewers in two games. Buoyed by the offseason signing of Mookie Betts, the thunderous LA lineup just keeps getting better – Seager, Turner, Muncy, Bellinger, all playing havoc with opposing pitchers. For playoff success teams need to have at least two top starters, and LA of course can ride the backs of Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler. Kenley Jansen, closer, leads a good bullpen. It’s difficult to see the Dodgers getting stopped on their way to their 24th World Series appearance. The question will be whether they can capture their first World title since 1988.
Tampa Bay Rays. The first word to come to mind about the AL East champion Rays is TEAM. Tampa made the playoffs for the second straight year with a cast of relatively unknown players. In scouring 2020 MLB offensive stats, only two players appear. Second baseman Brandon Lowe was among the AL HR leaders with 14, and centerfielder Manuel Margot was second in the league with 12 stolen bases. In watching the Rays dismantle Toronto, I did see the Rays’ strength, pitching! The top two starters, 2018 Cy Young winner Blake Snell and righthander Tyler Glasnow, are indeed formidable in a playoff series. The bullpen is deep with 12 pitchers recording saves this year. The Rays can just simply grind out wins with smart play, key hits, and solid pitching, the perfect ingredients for October success. Managed by Kevin Cash, Tampa will be a tough out in the playoffs.
Atlanta Braves. If you would have asked me what Atlanta’s strength was prior to the playoffs, I would have rolled off the offensive numbers. The Braves are a team built around its superstar outfielder, Ronald Acuna, but there are other big contributors. Perennial All-Star Freddy Freeman is a leading candidate for NL MVP, second in batting average (.341) and RBIs (53). Then there’s Marcell Ozuna, who signed a one-year deal in late January, leading the NL in HRs (18) and RBIs (56), and 3rd in hitting (.338), MVP numbers as well. The Braves have additional firepower from catcher Travis d’Arnaud (.321), outfielder Adam Duvall (11 HRs in September alone), and middle infielders Albies and Swanson. The series against Cincinnati certainly showed off starting pitchers Max Fried (7-0 regular season) and rookie righthander Ian Anderson, no runs allowed. What turned my head though was the Atlanta bullpen that management built over the offseason – Chris Martin; Will Smith; Darren O’Day; and closer Mark Melancon. And of course there is Brian Snitker, one of the top game managers in baseball (see “Best Skippers”, 08/26/2019).
New York Yankees. The Bronx Bombers flexed their muscles in the first round, scoring 22 runs in two games and sweeping the previously, red-hot Indians. I looked forward to the first game matchup against Cleveland’s soon to be crowned Cy Young winner, Shane Bieber, and two batters in, the Yanks were up 2-0 behind Aaron Judge’s long home run. In a year where MLB teams struggled to score runs, New York’s lineup is one of the few other teams fear. Leadoff hitter DJ LeMahieu is the best in the game, winning the AL batting crown with a .364 average. First baseman Luke Voit had some impressive short season numbers with 52 RBIs and a league-leading 22 HRs. On the mound, the feature story is starter Gerrit Cole, who during the offseason signed the largest contract in baseball history for a pitcher. Cole hasn’t disappointed, posting a 7-3 record, but the starters beyond Cole are just adequate. New York’s bullpen is solid, headed by Aroldis Chapman, who closed out the Cleveland series with a two inning stint. The Yankees’ October fortunes will turn on the performance of the other pitchers on staff.
San Diego Padres. The Padres showed some true grit in the first round by coming back from 4-0 and 6-2 deficits in Game 2 against Adam Wainwright and the resilient Cardinals. The comeback was triggered by HRs from their dynamic duo, Fernando Tatis Jr. (17 HRs and 45 RBIs, regular season) and Manny Machado (an almost identical, 16 HRs and 47 RBIs). Tatis actually coupled with Wil Myers in the same game to hit two homers apiece, the second time in MLB postseason history for multiple HRs by teammates, the other time being Ruth and Gehrig in the historic Game 3 of the 1932 World Series (the “Called Shot”). The Padres lineup is deep up and down, from leadoff hitter Trent Grisham to Jake Cronenworth in the ninth slot. It was the Padres first postseason series win since 1998, and in true 2020 fashion, they couldn’t even celebrate. Their home, Petco Park, was quickly being readied for the Rays and Yankees’ arrival later on Friday night to prepare for the ALDS. San Diego has a huge obstacle in front of them, a 5-game series with the Dodgers. Maybe if they get one or both of their top starters, Mike Clevinger and Dinelson Lamet, back for the series, they could celebrate this time, in Arlington.
Oakland Athletics. Oakland won its first AL West title since 2013 and followed it with a 2-1 series win over Chicago. In NCAA lingo, this is an overrated #2 seed. The Athletics hit .225 as a team during the regular season, one of the five teams this year with the worst team batting averages ever in the playoffs! Oakland’s offense is typically generated from the infield corners, but 3B Matt Chapman is now injured and first baseman Matt Olson (14 HRs and 42 RBIs) struggled in the first series. Defense is Oakland’s game, recording just 26 errors, fourth fewest in the majors, along with pitching. While the starters are just average (only Chris Barrit had a good year with a 2.29 ERA), the bullpen is tops in the AL. Jake Diekman (0.42 ERA), Yusmeiro Petit (1.66 ERA), J.B. Wendleken (1.80 ERA) and closer Liam Hendriks (1.78) can make most games just five inning affairs. This past week the Athletics won their first postseason series since 2006, and will most probably get past the Astros in the ALDS. The bubble will burst in the ALCS.
Miami Marlins. Two months ago no one gave the Marlins a fighting chance to make the playoffs, and here they are, in the NLDS. Incredibly, the Marlins remain the only team in the MLB to have never lost a postseason series. They do have some veterans in the lineup, Corey Dickerson (a huge 3-run HR in the first game win over the Cubs) and Starling Marte (a key acquisition this summer, but whose status is uncertain for the next round). The starting staff has two flamethrowers at the top end, Sandy Alcantara and Sixto Sanchez, both consistently coming right at hitters with high 90s heat. The bullpen is headlined by Brandon Kintzler, a veteran who knows how to close out games. Miami has overcome some major obstacles in this shortened season, a COVID-19 breakout at the start, numerous doubleheaders, and a tough slate of games against the NL and AL East. I don’t see them moving on, but never count out manager Don Mattingly and the Fish.
Houston Astros. Who invited this team to our postseason party? The Astros have appeared in the last 3 ALCS, winning it all in 2017 but under a dark cloud after the MLB’s off-season investigation. (See “Sign Stealing”, 06/01/2020.) That cloud never seemed to lift during the regular season, as Houston became the first AL team in history to reach the playoffs with a losing record (29-31). The Astros caught a break in the first round with its matchup against the Twins, an organization that has now lost 18 straight playoff games. While the Astros star position players for the most part had off years offensively, the offense has been helped by right fielder Kyle Tucker and his team-leading 42 RBIs. Houston’s past playoff success has been the direct result of its top starters. With Cole now in New York and Verlander shelved for the year, only Zach Greinke remains of the Big Three. That’s simply not enough.
So there you have my Elite Eight; no guaranties on their success in the next three rounds! And frankly, no matter what happens in the next few weeks, it’s going to be fun just watching it play out. I was struck by a story last Thursday by Chicago Tribune sports columnist Paul Sullivan when he ran into Kris Bryant and his six-month old son after the Cubs first game loss to the Marlins. Bryant joyfully remarked: “It was his (son’s) first game”. Sullivan told his readers: “The important things in life always remain the same, and baseball is still just a game.” Fifty years after getting my Ouija Board, I celebrated my 60th birthday. One of my favorite gifts was a book written by former Reds batboy, Teddy Kremer, “Stealing First”. Teddy has Down Syndrome, and what he always gave to the Reds players in the dugout and on the field was “joy, enthusiasm and whole-hearted support”. Let’s enjoy this beautiful October and the game we so dearly love.
Until next week,
your Baseball Bench Coach
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