Full Gallop — Baseball Bench Coach

Illinois and other states now have legal sports betting. With MLB play opening this coming weekend, here’s a public service announcement: don’t even think about it! This 60-game season will be far too unpredictable, much like a crazy horse race. Years ago, I was watching harness racing with friends. The only race that caught my attention featured six horses, one of which was the prohibitive favorite and another, a horse who had never won before going out at 40 to 1 odds, yet happened to have my wife’s name. So why not place a small wager on the long shot to win, place and show? My horse trailed the field the entire race, but at the final turn the favorite’s cart bumped into another horse, causing a wild scramble. The confusion caused some of the horses to break out of their trot and into a gallop, something prohibited in harness racing. After an inquiry and much delay, my long shot was declared the winner! You’re going to need that kind of luck to predict the 2020 World Series champion.

This season every team needs to follow the rules but be in full gallop from start to finish. You can throw many baseball adages out the door, like the one you often hear after two months of MLB games, that pennant races don’t begin until after Memorial Day (of course, that is technically true this season). See “Pennant Races”, 05/27/2019. One sight I love at this time of year is the standings of the division races captured in flags flying on outfield flagpoles at a ballpark. Even though it’s mid-July, those team pennants will need to be kept in storage for just a little while longer. White Sox manager Rick Renteria was recently asked about his team’s approach to the short season. His mindset is that beginning opening night this week, the South Siders will have already played 102 games, and are in first place with 60 games left. Yes, I like the message, similar to an adage we often hear on opening day, that every team starts with the same record and same opportunity. But is that really true this year?

By sticking to playoff teams comprised of 3 division winners and 2 wild cards in each league decided by regional play within the East, Central, and West divisions, MLB may have set up championship play to be among teams that aren’t the best in baseball. Forty of every team’s 60 games this year will come in division play (67%), and normally it’s only 76 of 162 (47%). Think about a team from the AL East in a 4-team wild card race the last week of the season, yet they may have never played one game against any of the other three AL wild card contenders. With last year’s results and this year’s team projections in mind, any AL East or NL East team that does not win the division outright has its playoff chances diminished. Seven of the top teams in baseball play in the East. The AL West teams are sitting in an envious wild card position, since they will be facing NL West teams with only the Dodgers thought of as an elite club (winners of the last 7 division titles). And I’m liking the chances of AL and NL Central teams facing the Tigers, Royals, and Pirates (all with dismal 2019 records).

There may be some teams who have an advantage because they are fast starters. Last year we looked at the Mariners amazing first two weeks (see “Strong Start”, 04/08/2019), that in 2020 would comprise 25% of the season. And how about Bryce Harper’s always hot April/May starts propelling Philadelphia to first place after 65 games in 2019! Both the Mariners and Phillies languished over the second half of the season, and certainly weren’t deserving of a playoff slot. Conversely, slow starting teams may not have an opportunity to recover. We’ve heard so many times about the defending champ Nationals’ poor 19-31 record to begin 2019. An even better example might be in the American League. During Terry Francona’s tenure with the Indians, Cleveland has posted a below .500 mark over the first five weeks of the season in 2013-2019, but has the second best overall winning percentage during those seven seasons at .562. Neither team can afford to fall behind the field early this year.

So which teams might you make a gentleman’s (no money) bet on? The predictions of the analysts are all over the place. One theory on Chicago’s north side is that a close-knit team with veteran players who are likely to follow all of the medical protocols deserves a nod. As I write this, the Cubs are the only team in MLB that has not had a player test positive since intake testing began a few weeks ago. That will be important, but so will be the injury status of key players, like first baseman Anthony Rizzo and starting pitcher Jose Quintana. In the AL, the veteran team that stands out is certainly Houston, but of course we know now that team plays fast and loose with some other rules. The worst thing about no fans in the stands this year is that we won’t get to witness the taunting of the Astros while they play on the road.

Team leadership, whether it’s from the manager or a key off-season acquisition, will play a role. MLB added several new managers, and certainly each one of them has to learn quickly how to make adjustments with their new rosters. It may be especially difficult for first-time managers with younger teams, such as the Pirates’ Derek Shelton, Luis Rojas of the Mets, and San Diego’s Jayce Tingler. While both Joe Maddon and Joe Girardi are in their first years at the helm of the Angels and Phillies, I like the championship mentality both of them bring to teams with a mix of veterans and young talent. Also keep an eye on some teams that added a player with championship experience who might be the perfect push over the top – Gerrit Cole (Yankees); Edwin Encarnacion (White Sox); and Mike Moustakas (Reds).

What will be some of the keys on the field? Baseball is always about PITCHING, and this year with the every game counts mentality there will be an even greater emphasis on it. The impressive front of the staff pitching of the Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, and Nationals seems to dominate the headlines. Yet, the overall quality of the starting staff will be as important. Take the NL Central with top contenders throwing these threesomes in a series – Reds (Gray, Castillo, and Bauer); Cardinals (Flaherty, Hudson, and Wainwright); and Cubs (Hendricks, Darvish, and Lester). Staying in the division, bullpens might be the deciding factor with the Brewers’ Josh Hader leading one of the best pens in the game. Another NL team with a top bullpen is San Diego and ace closer, Kirby Yates. Moving into the junior circuit, both Tampa and Oakland are looking for repeat playoff appearances behind their bullpen staffs, Nick Anderson and Emilio Pagan of the Rays and Liam Kendricks of the A’s. The AL Central may see 10 tight games between the Twins and the White Sox with the final three outs each game in the capable hands of Taylor Rogers (Minnesota) and Alex Colome (Chicago).

Health, injuries, and luck will be the final factors. Some key NL players who have opted out due to COVID-19 include David Price (Dodgers), Buster Posey (Giants), and Nick Markakis (Braves). Each would have played a central role in their team’s success, but certainly did the absolute, right thing for themselves and their families. In the American League, White Sox fans will need to wait another year to see future ace pitcher, Michael Kopech, as he too has opted out of the 2020 season. Some key players returning to action from injuries include the Giants’ Johnny Cueto who has recovered from Tommy John surgery. Texas is excited to christen Globe Life Field behind what they hope to be the comeback pitcher of the year, Cory Kluber. You can never count out the Yankees, a roster deep in talent, but now bolstered with the return of third baseman Miguel Andujar.

Phew! Do I have you totally confused? Thought so. That’s what kind of season we are going to have. I keep hearing the naysayers question whether the results this year should even matter in baseball history. The Cubs new manager, David Ross, said it best a few weeks ago: “If they’re passing out a trophy, I want it.” Count me in too skipper! I’ll be in the family room enjoying the games.

Until next Monday,

your Baseball Bench Coach