Get In
Last week the Atlantic Coast Conference announced its support of an all-in NCAA basketball tournament with 256 teams competing. All I can say to this charge led by Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski is UGH! You see, I’m one of those baseball playoffs snobs. I’ve always looked at the NBA and NHL playoffs with disdain. How can you play an entire season and eliminate less than half of the teams for postseason play? Not in my favorite sport, Major League Baseball! Well, then there’s the 2020 season and even this baseball traditionalist has to rethink what’s the fairest way to crown a World Series champion. And with just one week of games left on the 60-game schedule, many teams are knocking on the door, just wanting to get in.
Shortly after MLB opened its 2020 season in late July, the Commissioner’s office announced that the player’s union had approved a 16-team playoff format. In Rob Manfred’s words: “This season will be a sprint to a new format that will allow more fans to experience playoff baseball.” Oh, yes it will. For the first two-thirds of the 20th century, baseball’s postseason was pretty simple, champions of the National League and American League faced off in the World Series. Beginning in 1969, both leagues were broken into East and West divisions, so that four teams would compete in the playoffs. In 1994, after some realignment, a Central Division was added to both the NL and AL, such that three divisions had champions and one Wild Card (second place team with best record) was added. It was not until 2012 when MLB arrived at its current format, adding a second Wild Card in each league that met the first Wild Card in a crazy, one-game series.
Teams this week will be competing for eight playoff spots in both leagues, 3 division winners, 3 second place teams from each division, and 2 Wild Cards. MLB will seed the teams 1 through 8, the first 3 seeds in each league going to the division winners and the fourth seed to the second place team with the best record. It’s MLB’s version of March Madness. The top four seeds in each league will get to play a best of 3-game series at home, September 29 to October 1 in the AL, and September 30 to October 2 in the NL. And news came out this week that MLB will play the remaining slate of playoff games in an NBA/NHL-like bubble, the four AL teams facing off at Dodger Stadium and San Diego’s Petco Park, while the NLDS will be played at the new gem, Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, and Minute Maid Park in Houston, both 5-game series. The ALCS will be played in San Diego, and the NLCS in Arlington, with the World Series in Arlington, all 7-game series. Got that?!
With 16 teams getting in, we will find numerous teams with near .500 records in the first round of MLB’s Sweet 16. Do they have a chance of advancing deep into the playoffs? They certainly do, and history is on their side. In 1973 the Mets won the National League East with an 82-79 record, a .509 winning percentage. The 82 wins, a number matched by the Padres in 2005, are the lowest number of wins to get into the MLB playoffs since baseball expanded to 162 games in 1961. The ’73 Mets faced the NL West winners, Cincinnati, in a 5-game series. The Reds were coming off a 99-win season. Since it was an odd-numbered year, the Mets were even awarded home park advantage, such that the first two games were in Cincinnati and Games 3, 4, and 5 were played at Shea Stadium. Behind the starting staff of Tom Seaver, Jon Matlack, and Jerry Koosman, New York advanced to the World Series, 3 games to 2. While reliever Tug McGraw’s “Ya Gotta Believe” became the nation’s motto in the Series, Oakland did survive in seven games. The Mets season winning percentage remains the lowest ever by a pennant-winning team.
The 2006 Cardinals had a similar story, winning the NL Central with only an 83-78 record and posting its worst record in seven years! Yet, they dominated the playoffs, beating San Diego in 4 games in the NLDS, knocking off the Mets in a 7-game NLCS, and winning the world championship in 4 games to 1 fashion over the heavily-favored and 95-win regular season Tigers. In looking at the season statistics for the ’06 Cards, it’s like a mirror of their 2020 short season. Catcher Yadier Molina struggled all season in 2006 at the plate, batting .216. Molina’s current batting average of .256 is his lowest since that year. The Cardinals limped into the 2006 playoffs with a 12-17 September record, and of course this September they are trying to crawl past the finish line after playing numerous doubleheaders. You just never know who might get hot in October. Just try to get in.
For the 10 non-division winning entrants this year, they all want to be tweeting the tunes of the Marlins. Miami (once Florida) has never won a division championship in 28 seasons in the MLB. The Marlins did, however, gain entry into the playoffs as a wild card in 1997 and 2003. And on both occasions, they made the most of it, winning the World Series! The Marlins, who are often the recipients of baseball scorn in terms of competitive play, is the only current MLB team to have never lost a playoff round. Indeed, the ’97 Marlins were the youngest expansion team to win the World Series (it was their 5th year of existence), and the first team to win the World Series as a wild card entrant. And eerily, as we check the standings as of Sunday evening, the 2020 Marlins stand ready to knock again at the playoff door.
The 2020 Marlins are bested only by today’s American League Mariners in having the longest postseason drought in baseball. You might recall the last time Seattle was in the playoffs, 2001, when they set the AL’s all-time record for wins in a season, 116. The 116 wins tied the major league record of wins in a season by the 1906 Chicago Cubs. And of course the 2001 tale of the Mariners was an unfortunate one, losing in the ALCS to the Yankees. The 2020 Mariners, despite an under .500 record for most of this season, were in contention for the eighth and final spot in the AL field until this past week of play.
This next week in the MLB promises to be an exciting and unpredictable one. Tampa, Chicago, and Oakland are in good position to capture the AL Division crowns, while the Yankees and Twins look to fight to the last game for the best second place record and the fourth spot in the American League as a home field team. On the NL side, the Dodgers, Braves, and Cubs seem to have division championships in sight, and the Padres appear to be a lock as the best second place team. It’s difficult to know how much home field is an advantage in the first round this year. The Yankees and Twins both have played extremely well in their home parks, so the fourth spot in the AL might be telling. However, only a handful of other teams (Phillies, Padres, and Astros, stop laughing) have a big disparity in winning records at home vs. road. Both fields will be filled by many .500 teams scrambling to get in. The Reds are making a late sprint, going old school by giving the ball to ace pitcher Trevor Bauer in 3 of their last 8 games. San Francisco, who many counted out from the start with Buster Posey’s decision not to play, is also trying to slip in through the playoff door.
An interesting component of the MLB playoffs announced this week is that there will be continuous play in all rounds leading up to the World Series. In other words, since there is no travel needed during a series, off days to adjust starting pitching rotations will be cast aside. It will be a real test of pitching depth, and might lead to some higher scoring playoff games than we’ve seen in the past. Unless you spend all of your free time devouring games on the MLB-TV feeds, it’s impossible to even guess how that might play out for each contending team. Maybe the way to look at it for your favorite team in the next week or so is not to ponder the what ifs, but rather be okay for now with just getting in.
Until next week,
your Baseball Bench Coach